To model air quality in Mexico City
In a new project, the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) will help model air quality in Mexico City, a highly populated city with distinct air quality and health-related challenges.
The project is funded by The Wellcome Trust, a British foundation that finances research to improve human health. Spanning three years, from 2026 to 2028, MET Norway’s share of the project amounts to two full-time equivalents (person years), or 2.6 million NOK.
The project is titled “Driving Cleaner Air Through Climate Mitigation Actions: A case study for Mexico City and electromobility” The project is led by the World Resources Institute (WRI México), and MET Norway will collaborate with several Mexican agencies as well as the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), an organization MET Norway has partnered with on previous projects.
Special challenges in Mexico City
"Our work will build on what we have done in several European projects, and we are bringing our expertise in air quality modeling to the table. At the same time, we are accustomed to European conditions, and Mexico City will be scientifically interesting because the city has different air quality challenges than we are used to," says researcher Bruce Rolstad Denby at Norwegian Meteorological Institute.
For one, there is the sheer size of the city. With 22 million inhabitants in its metropolitan area, it is larger than any European city. Additionally, the city is situated 2,240 meters above sea level and is surrounded by high mountains and volcanoes. These towering mountains trap air pollution and prevent the wind from blowing it away. Furthermore, the high altitude means the air is thinner and solar radiation is stronger. According to the UN, this inherently contributes to poorer air quality in a city with 5.5 million registered vehicles and massive emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter.
Bruce Rolstad Denby will participate in the project alongside his MET Norway colleagues Erik Askov Mousing and Eivind Grøtting Wærsted. The kick-off meeting will be held in Mexico City from September 5th to 9th and will be officially marked at the Norwegian embassy on September 7th.
Major health challenges
Many large cities face significant health challenges due to air pollution, yet they also play a vital role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This project aims to develop an integrated framework for modeling and policy analysis. The goal is to calculate the health benefits of reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, with a special focus on vulnerable population groups. While the project will address local and regional sources that contribute to urban pollution, the Mexico City case study will specifically emphasize mitigation measures within the transport sector.
The Meteorological Institute will simulate how chemicals are transported through the air and determine the concentrations of PM2.5, NO2, and ozone that can occur in areas where people spend their time. The project will provide crucial insights for local authorities and help shape Mexico City's policies on air quality and decarbonization. MET Norway is responsible for the modeling, while the Austrian-based IIASA will calculate the emission mitigation measures and their corresponding health effects.
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute has already completed multiple air quality projects in Europe, and the institute served as a key scientific advisor when the European Commission introduced stricter air quality regulations in 2024.