What the weather will do is more important than what the weather will be
Anyone can have a look at Yr, but understanding what the weather warning means for you in practice is not necessarily as straightforward. The Norwegian Meteorological Institute will address this through a new project.
In situations with severe weather conditions, it is crucial that all relevant societal actors know their responsibilities and what actions to take. Improving understanding of these responsibilities and issuing forecasts and weather warnings in line with perceived consequences for users is one of the goals of the new project "Improved impact-based warnings for society" (K2S). The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway) has actively worked on developing impact-based forecasting since 2018 when we introduced hazard warnings with color-coded hazard levels, focusing on consequences and advice associated with the hazard. In this context, we have engaged in a dialogue with users and infrastructure owners regarding thresholds and potential consequences. This forms the foundation for the project.
"The overarching goal is to provide society with better access to impact-based weather forecasts so that protective measures can be implemented to safeguard lives and property," says project leader Ina Kindem.
The main outcome of the project will be to provide better support for both the general public and societal actors facing hazardous weather conditions. The Meteorological Institute currently collaborates with many emergency preparedness actors concerning orange and red level warnings. Through the project, the institute aims to strengthen existing collaborations and establish new ones, including collaborations with local emergency preparedness.
"MET Norway will continue to develop the work on weather warnings and learn more about consequences, impacts, and actions related to severe weather conditions in a local context. This knowledge must also be included in warning communication so that different parts of society can benefit from it," says Kindem.
The project has five sub-goals:
- Assess the impacts of severe weather.
- Improve user understanding so that recipients can comprehend the warning, the risk, and take action when necessary.
- Evaluate hazard warnings.
- Enhance the warning process.
- Learn from other actors, such as meteorological institutes in Europe.
Inspiration from Latvia and Iceland
Regarding learning from others, the institute recently gained inspiration and knowledge from meteorological institutes in Iceland and Latvia (LVGMC). This took place at a seminar in Iceland in early October.
"We were impressed by the enormous amount of responsibility and heavy workload that meteorologists in Iceland have, from aviation and marine forecasting to weather forecasting and warnings, as can also be seen on their websites (https://en.vedur.is/). It was also very nice to visit the forecaster's room and see how they collaborated since there were also two people in the team responsible for hydrology and earthquakes and volcanoes," says Solfrid Agersten, the project owner for the K2S project.
During the days with the experience exchange seminar, we were also impressed byLVGMC in how the impact based forecasting process for the meteorologists were developed in Latvia.
The three institutes identified several topics that could be relevant for collaboration. Icing on ships is a common challenge with Iceland. For Latvia and Norway, heavy rainfall is a scientific challenge and a challenge for the public to understand, as it can be difficult to predict where heavy showers and lightning will hit. In this area, more collaboration could be interesting.
"The three countries are different, but many things are the same, so it was very fruitful and interesting to discuss the challenges in the forecasting service and how people react to warnings. Some may be afraid of many warnings at the same time, while others think that the warning will not be a challenge for them. In Iceland, they have a problem with curious people approaching a volcano or people driving through closed mountain roads. It was nice to find out that many users experience that an early warning with the potential to be extreme is very valuable. This is something all three countries are working on, sharing information about probability," says Solfrid Agersten.
At the seminar, she gained a deeper insight into various products designed for aviation, civil defense, and the public. "We are pleased to see that weather models are evolving, and the advice from meteorologists is creating value for society and emergency preparedness actors," says Agersten.
The project aims to strengthen consequence-based forecasting services
Extreme weather is among the biggest threats in the future due to climate change. The extent of climate-related damages in Norway has increased in the last decade, with extreme precipitation accounting for half of the insurance payouts. However, a report from the The Office of the Auditor General criticizes authorities for not implementing necessary measures to secure existing buildings and infrastructure. At the same time, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) emphasizes the need for a better early warning system so that relevant measures can be implemented as early as possible. The "Improved impact-based warnings for society" (K2S) project responds to this call and aims to strengthen consequence-based forecasting services from the Meteorological Institute.
"WMO emphasizes that forecasts of what the weather will be are no longer sufficient. Impact-based forecasting is about what the weather will do, and, most importantly, what people should do. This is crucial to ensure life and livelihoods," says project leader Ina Kindem.
The Meteorological Institute has been focused on consequence-based forecasting in recent years, especially through the "One Danger - Local Effort" project, a collaboration with NRK and NVE. This has been a Stimulab project, a collaboration between the Digitalization Directorate and DOGA, with the goal of stimulating public innovation from the user's perspective. The project will conclude by the new year and will provide valuable input to the K2S project. K2S is funded by the Meteorological Institute, starting in the new year and lasting until 2027.
Sources:
- The Report from the Office of the Auditor General: https://www.riksrevisjonen.no/rapporter-mappe/no-2021-2022/undersokelse-av-myndighetenes-arbeid-med-klimatilpasning-av-bebyggelse-og-infrastruktur/
- WMO guidelines on multi-hazard impact-based forecast and warning services: Part II – putting multi-hazards IBFWS into practice https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/57739
- WMO: Early warnings for all https://library.wmo.int/idurl/4/58209