Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)
Predictive skill is lagging behind in polar regions. And what happens at the poles affects the entire globe. That is why the World Meteorological Organization and partners have launched the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) to advance polar prediction capabilities.
During Special Observing Periods between mid-2017 and mid-2019, the polar observing gaps will be filled. YOPP is an internationally coordinated period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities which involves various stakeholders.
Researchers and forecasting centres worldwide will analyse the unique data with the goal to better predict, navigate and protect the pristine polar environment and its inhabitants. YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with a changing climate.
Weather and Sea Ice Modelling
To predict weather and sea ice, scientists use weather and climate models – computer programs that divide the Earth’s atmosphere, ice, land and oceans into a network of grid boxes. After being fed with actual meteorological and oceanographic observations, the models calculate how the physical state changes step by step into the future.
During the YOPP period, scientists from various Arctic and Antarctic research fields will work together with operational prediction centres, people from local communities, and others who rely on environmental predictions in their everyday life.
MET Norway will play an active part in many areas during YOPP, including launching additional observations and operational weather, ocean and ice forecasting. For instance, MET Norway have at present one of the most sophisticated and detailed numerical weather prediction models dedicated to the Arctic, AROME-Arctic. MET Norway will be involved in model experiments and forecast verification to improve, through research and development on observation usage and physical processes unique to the Arctic, the forecasting capabilities and quality in the European Arctic. MET Norway will also employ its strong knowledge about Arctic weather and processes in the regional office in Tromsø in support of operations during YOPP.
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